These Trades Have Some Explaining To Do

US News

These Trades Have Some Explaining To Do 

What’s going on: Did some very lucrative — and very well-timed — bets on prediction markets break insider trading laws? It’s what federal prosecutors in Manhattan are looking into, according to CNN. This week, officials met with Polymarket representatives following some hard-to-ignore trades in recent months: A mystery bettor won $400,000 on a prediction that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would soon be out of power — just hours before US forces unexpectedly captured him. Coincidence? Another person bet $87K that the US would strike Iran when the odds were just 17%. About 71 minutes later, news of the strikes broke publicly. That wager? Suddenly worth about $553K, according to Quartz. And the list goes on. While no one has been charged, prosecutors want to discuss how existing fraud laws could apply to the industry.

Tell me more: Polymarket and Kalshi have both added recent insider trading guardrails, but lawmakers say it’s not enough. Now, more than 40 Democrats, led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), also want answers. Even though insider trading on government information is already illegal, there’s growing speculation that federal employees may have also benefited from private knowledge. As the government dives into how insider trading rules apply to prediction markets, many questions remain: Who’s placing these bets? What do they know? And what, exactly, is anyone going to do about it? We have a feeling this is going to take a while to sort out. In fact, some people might even be betting on exactly how long. 

Related: NFL Wants Prediction Markets To Halt Certain Types of Bets (CNBC)

The News in 5

🗞️ President Donald Trump just gave Iran a new ultimatum. Meanwhile, the average price for a gallon of gas in the US is at its highest since August 2022.

🗞️ Thieves stole $10 million worth of artwork in roughly the same amount of time it takes to listen to Cardi B’s “Money.” How do you say “efficient” in Italian?

🗞️ Video of a military helicopter hovering above this rock artist’s infinity pool just sparked an Army investigation. They weren’t thinking about tomorrow.

🗞️ This airline raised its checked bag fees because of the war in Iran.

🗞️ While people want solutions to TSA lines and inflation, Vice President JD Vance is trying to get to the bottom of another mystery.

Care

The $1 Trillion Caregiving Economy

What’s going on: Anyone who’s ever cared for an aging loved one knows it’s a labor of love. And the AARP would like to put the emphasis on the labor part. The latest report from its Public Policy Institute found that in 2024, 59 million Americans cared for their adult relatives, neighbors, or friends, adding up to an estimated 49.5 billion hours of care (likely an undercount). That equals $1.01 trillion worth of economic value, exceeding both Medicaid spending and out-of-pocket health spending, the AARP found. In practice, this can look like anything from assisting your mom as she fills her pill box for the week to helping your neighbor out with their latest insurance claim. The work is often longterm, unpaid, and heaped on top of existing responsibilities.

Out of the goodness of our hearts and the depths of our wallets: The Sandwich Generation is no stranger to the woes of caring for older parents while raising kids and working. Still, this new report bears out the impact of the invisible labor they can carry (on top of the clear emotional and physical tolls). It’s not surprising that more workers are asking their employers to provide caregiver benefits. So far, over a dozen states mandate paid leave for those helping others, whether that’s a brand-new baby or a family member who’s ill. The AARP argues we need more policies that do something similar. On an individual level, the organization emphasizes the need for families to discuss caregiving needs before they become imminent. In other words: Plan, plan, plan ahead. Tips like these can help. 

Related: Could AI Help Detect the Early Signs of Alzheimer’s? (STAT)

Relationships

The Manosphere Wants To Sell Men on "One-Sided Monogamy"

What’s going on: If you’ve been on the internet recently, you’ve probably seen clips or trailers from Louis Theroux’s documentary, Inside the Manosphere. There is a lot to unpack, but one topic captured the audience’s attention: “one-sided monogamy.” It’s when both partners agree that one person can have outside relationships, while the other remains monogamous. But in the manosphere, that type of sexual freedom is just for the boys. Justin Waller, a well-known podcaster and influencer, told Theroux, “Women don’t want to sleep with other men when they love a man.” No one told us Waller was a mind reader, too. 

Reality check: There are many different kinds of relationship structures, and asymmetrical ones aren’t new. Experts say it doesn’t count as infidelity if both people are in on it and consent, but they don’t agree with how these manosphere influencers frame it. One relationship coach told The New York Times that the idea that a woman could never want multiple partners “is just absolutely false.” A polyamory educator said that these alternative relationships are about “agency and autonomy,” and people shouldn’t be coerced or forced into them. The irony? The manosphere pushes traditional ideas about masculinity while advocating for anything but traditional relationship rules. After the documentary, one podcaster who wanted multiple wives had a relationship status update. 

Related: How One Woman’s Boyfriend Was Sucked Into the Manosphere (Bustle)

Quick Hits

💆 This 48-hour European reset has us reconsidering everything about our mornings. So, don’t snooze three times then doomscroll?

🚿 These two household staples could help you unclog your shower drain. We’ve all been there (or are here right now).

🧑‍🍳 KitchenAid’s iconic stand mixer just got its most significant update in 70 years, but we want to know more about the new colors.

✅ Martha Stewart has the perfect checklist for what to look for in a man. The bar is high, the yacht requirement is higher.

🎤 Céline Dion is officially returning to the stage — but just one city will get all the action. Time to book that girls trip.

👀 The cast list for Netflix’s new Kennedy series reads like a history book fever dream.

On Our Calendar

Things to jot down today…

🗓️ The PEN America Literary Awards celebrate the year’s best books, with nearly $350K awarded across categories — and plenty of prestige.

🗓️ The Supreme Court takes up a death row appeal. The question: Did prosecutors unfairly dismiss Black jurors?

Psst…For more dates worth knowing this week, check out the Skimm+ calendar.

Know It All

In China, some people are changing their profile pictures to this celebrity, praying she brings them wealth and job offers. Honestly, we've heard worse ideas.

Skimm'd by: Rashaan Ayesh, Mallory Simon, Molly Longman, Maria del Carmen Corpus, and Marina Carver. Fact-checked by Sara Tardiff.